The “Blind Resumes” Game

It’s time to step into on the shoes of the NCAA Selection Committee with one of my favorite March Madness exercises, the Blind Resumes game.  I’ll present you with the resumes of two teams.  Look them over, and decide which team you would give an at-large bid.  Afterward, you’ll get to see who each team actually was, and what their statuses are heading into Selection Sunday.

Remember to be careful with your scrolling, so you don’t spoil yourself.  There will be six rounds.  Ready?  Let’s go.

 

We’ll kick things off with two teams from the same conference.  One has a better overall record and KenPom ranking, while the other gets the nod in RPI and SOS.  Who would you send to the Big Dance?  Remember, the teams are revealed directly below.

 

You might be surprised to see that Virginia Tech is safely in the field while Syracuse will most likely play in the NIT.  Virginia Tech’s weak RPI and SOS numbers in comparison to many bubble teams stem from their weak nonconference SOS.  However, this is not a major deciding factor for the committee, especially in comparison to quality wins.  While Virginia Tech has just one more Q1 win, what the 5-7 record doesn’t indicate is that four of those wins came against RPI top-10 teams (Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson).  To compare, Syracuse has only beaten Clemson.  Those four huge victories have the Hokies safely in the field.

 

Here is this year’s edition of the classic debate between a strong mid-major and a team from a power conference with quality wins but a poor overall record.  Which side of the argument do you take in this instance?

 

Middle Tennessee does have a few strong wins, and a good RPI number of 34 bolstered by a strong nonconference schedule.  However, the Blue Raiders also have a few terrible losses, including a conference tournament quarterfinals loss to Southern Miss.  On the other hand, Alabama beat both Texas A&M and Auburn in their tourney to move back to the right side of the bubble.  It’s admittedly very close, but I have the Crimson Tide becoming the first 15-loss at-large bid in tournament history.

 

In this pair of major conference teams, one had an amazing start to the season before struggling down the stretch while the other made a late-season surge with a 13-5 conference record.  If you’ve been following college basketball, you might know exactly who I’m talking about.

 

Trae Young and Oklahoma won’t be seeded anything like the #4 they were given by the committee in early February, but despite losing a stunning 11 of their final 14, the Sooners’ quality wins in the first half of the year should keep them in the field in the 9-10 seed range.  On the other hand, Nebraska did make a nice run, but failed to pick up any real quality wins outside of blowing out Michigan.  Conference record can’t be the end all be all, especially when the Big Ten was so ridiculously top-heavy this year.

 

You might have realized that something seems a bit off here.  Team 2 has a better resume in every single metric.  Why is this even a question?  I’ll spare you the trouble and just reveal now.

 

Yup, Team 2 is Northeastern, certainly a good team, but not an at-large candidate following their loss to Charleston in the Colonial Championship.  This examples serves to prove how data can be cherry-picked to mislead you.  Northeastern’s record, conference record, road record, and scoring margin just come from having an easier schedule.  Yes, they played a better nonconference schedule, but in terms of actual RPI and SOS, the Friars are currently 31/16 while Northeastern is 54/101.  While the Friars did have a couple bad losses, they also have five Q1 wins to Northeastern’s zero, including a nation-leading three wins over top-five RPI teams.  The Friars are a lock.

 

Three teams for the price of two.  All of these schools are Big 12 bubble teams who finished with the same conference record.  Only one is a projected tournament team.  Who is it?

 

The answer is Texas.  The Longhorns have played the toughest schedule, and finished the year with the most quality wins, which should earn them a trip to Dayton to play in the First Four.  Despite a sweep of Texas, Baylor is just three games above .500 and missed a huge opportunity against West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament.  The Bears still have a chance to make the field, but it looks more difficult for Oklahoma State.  In this case, two wins over Kansas can’t make up for an abysmal nonconference schedule and 14 losses overall.

 

The last pairing features what are currently my last team in the tournament and first team on the outside looking in.  One has better overall numbers, while the other has four RPI Top 50 wins.  I’ll probably go back and forth on these two teams a couple more times before I release my final bracket on Sunday.  Who would you take?

 

Arizona State was at one time the #3 ranked team in the country, and the nation’s last remaining unbeaten.  Their four RPI Top 50 wins, including likely #1 seeds Kansas and Xavier, are keeping the Sun Devils afloat following going just 8-10 in a less-than-great Pac-12, with an opening round loss to Colorado to boot.  Louisville’s main problem is their lack of success against tournament teams.  Will the committee take both, one, or neither?  We’ll find out soon enough.