Super Bowl LII Ratings Analysis

*Since Monday’s usual Bracketology has been postponed to Tuesday, here’s a recent assignment I did for school on ratings for Super Bowl LII and the NFL as a whole.

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Super Bowl LII was a game to be remembered, as the underdog Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New England Patriots 41-33 in a back-and-forth, exciting affair which featured more total yards than any game in NFL history.  Despite this, however, ratings for the game disappointed.

The Super Bowl averaged 103.4 million viewers on television, according to a Variety report.  While this still represents a massive audience (good for the 10th most-watched program of all-time), it was the least-watched Super Bowl since 2009 and drew nearly 10 million fewer viewers than last year’s Super Bowl, a 7% annual decrease.

Interestingly, the decline was most evident in the Adults 18-49 demographic, which posted a rating of just 33.4 compared to the 43.1 overall rating for the event, according to Sports Media Watch.  And while this year’s Super Bowl dropped 2.2 rating points compared to 2017, the drop was a significantly larger 3.7 points among the age 18-49s.  

While overall viewership was down, a bright spot came in streaming.  Over two million people streamed the game using a variety of services including the NBC Sports App, NBCSports.com, NBC.com, NFL.com, and NFL Mobile from Verizon.  This comes as a 17% increase over last year and over doubles streaming viewership from just three years ago.  While streaming still represents a minute portion of overall viewership, these numbers reaffirm that alternative viewing methods to television will be an important part of the NFL’s future.

For now, though, the Super Bowl is primarily a television event and the biggest night of the year for advertisers.  An AdAge report estimated the average cost of a 30-second Super Bowl ad at an astounding $5.05 million, a number equal to estimates from last year’s game.  

Over time, the value of these lucrative spots has only increased, from a $30,000 price during the first Super Bowl in 1967 to first topping the $1 million mark in 1995.  Prices have continued to skyrocket even in this decade, as the average 30-second ad cost just under $3 million in 2010.  

Despite television ratings struggling across the board in recent years, the Super Bowl (and sports in general) has remained an appealing choice for advertisers for its ability to provide a large, consistent, and engaged audience, a rare combination in an era where DVRs and streaming services such as Netflix have all but killed appointment television.

This is further evidenced by an AdAge list of the 50 most-watched television programs of 2017, which included 37 NFL games and 43 total sporting events.  That year’s Super Bowl, with 111.3 million viewers, more than doubled any other program.  In fact, no episodic programming even made the list, as the only other events listed were President Trump’s Inauguration, Trump speeches, annual award shows, and the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.  Clearly, sports, and the NFL, in particular, remain the go-to channels for television advertising.

Despite this dominance, the fact is undeniable that NFL television ratings are in decline.  ESPN’s Darren Rovell notes that even with the league experimenting with their commercial format and attempting to speed up the game, ratings fell 9.7% during the 2017 regular season, building upon an eight percent decrease during the previous season.

Luckily for the NFL, these problems are fixable.  While solutions might not be easy, the NBA is proving it’s possible to experience rating growth in the modern age.  In the same report, Rovell adds that the NBA has seen a 20% increase in viewership this season.

Of course, the NBA has not been affected by the same issues as the NFL, such as the controversy surrounding kneeling for the National Anthem.  Additionally, the NFL faces serious questions about player safety.  Numerous high-profile players suffered season-ending injuries in 2017, and continued research into the effects of concussions and CTE has jeopardized the league’s future.  Cord cutting, the league’s treatment of players, and the poor-quality of nationally-televised games have also harmed the NFL.

Still, through all the adversity, Sports Business Journal’s Terry Lofton still reported that 2017 will prove to be a record year for NFL Consumer Products.  NBC’s Sunday Night Football won primetime for the seventh consecutive year.  Companies such as Amazon, Twitter, and Yahoo are now involved in streaming games.  It’s clear that people still love football, and while the NFL must still address its issues, it is positioned to remain an entertainment and business powerhouse for years to come.

Sources:

http://variety.com/2018/tv/news/super-bowl-lii-ratings-1202687239/

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/super-bowl-ratings-historical-viewership-chart-cbs-nbc-fox-abc/

http://adage.com/article/special-report-super-bowl/super-bowl-ad-spending-history-charts-52-years/311881/

http://adage.com/article/media/ratings-slum/311777/

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21960086/nfl-television-ratings-97-percent-2017-regular-season

https://www.bizjournals.com/newyork/news/2018/02/15/nfl-another-record-year-for-merchandise.html