One Spot is Left in the College Football Playoff. Four Teams Are Playing For It.

Tonight, the penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings will be revealed. All that’s left to play are the conference championship games before we’ll finally know which four teams will be competing for the title.

Rivalry Week saw a thinning of the candidate field, as many of the year’s fringe contenders saw their playoff hopes fizzle out. The highest ranked of these was LSU, who entered the week at #7 before falling in 7OT (!) to Texas A&M in the highest-scoring game in FBS history. Things were already going to be difficult (to say the least) for the Tigers, who at best could have finished 10-2 and watched from the sidelines as Alabama and Georgia played for an SEC Championship, but a defeat to the Aggies rained (Gatoraded?) on any potential parade.

Additionally, Pac-12 playoff hopes reached their conclusion when long shot Washington State fell in the Apple Cup to rivals Washington, giving the Huskies the Pac-12 North and ensuring the Pac-12 champion would have three losses to their name.

Finally, West Virginia perished at the hands of Oklahoma in a thrilling 59-56 contest which saw the Sooners advance to face Texas in the Big 12 Championship.

The biggest game of the week, however, took place in Columbus, Ohio, where the #4 Michigan Wolverines came with one goal in mind: to defeat the #10 Buckeyes for the first time in the Jim Harbaugh era. However, Michigan’s stout defense proved absolutely no challenge for Urban Meyer’s team, as Dwayne Haskins threw for six touchdowns in an emphatic 62-39 Ohio State victory.

The victory, along with setting up a matchup against Northwestern for the Big Ten, propelled Ohio State back into serious playoff contention. As for the Wolverines, there are far worse losses than at Notre Dame and Ohio State, but it simply won’t be enough this season.

So where does that leave us?

By my count, three teams have already clinched their spots in the “Final Four”, while four teams will be left to fight for that final spot this weekend. Here’s how I see (and rank) the top seven, starting with the locks.

LOCKS:

#1 Alabama (12-0) – The defending National Champions have been far and away the most dominant team in the country this season, blasting through just about everybody (with the surprising exception of one half vs. The Citadel) with alarming dominance. Through eight games, heavy Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa hadn’t even needed to attempt a pass in the fourth quarter. The closest anyone has come to defeating the Tide was Texas A&M, who fell 45-23. On the road against then-#3 LSU, Alabama shut out their opponents 29-0.

Yet, somehow, there still remain a few people who see a conference championship as a prerequisite for making the playoff. These people still think Alabama should fall out of the top four should they lose to Georgia, and frankly, I’m losing my patience with them. Luckily, the committee bypassed that requirement when they put Alabama in the playoff last year, and they’ll do so again if need be.

#2 Clemson (12-0) – No one has been as dominant as Alabama this season, but Clemson has come pretty darn close. These two teams have really set themselves apart from the pack at this point, and as #1 and #2 in the country, are favorites to meet each other in the playoff for the fourth straight season (and a third Championship matchup). Like Alabama, Clemson should be able to sustain a loss and keep themselves afloat. I don’t know what would be more surprising – Clemson losing in the ACC Championship to 7-5 Pittsburgh, or the fact that a 7-5 team made a conference championship at all.

#3 Notre Dame (12-0) – Notre Dame is not in a conference. They are FBS Independent. The same people who think that a one-loss Alabama shouldn’t make the playoff will tell you that Notre Dame shouldn’t be given a playoff spot until they get with the times and join a conference already. Again – pay them no mind. The Irish’s best win of the season came on their opener against Michigan. There’s been some chatter about Notre Dame playing a weaker schedule, but it’s not their fault schools like Stanford, Navy, Florida State, and USC just decided to have their worst season in a decade or longer.

Regardless, Notre Dame has quality wins against the aforementioned Michigan, Syracuse, Northwestern, and Pittsburgh. It hasn’t been a cakewalk by any means. Of course, they’re also undefeated, and their play speaks for itself. Considering it’s rare to see teams fall in the rankings without a loss, and Notre Dame can’t lose before the final rankings, they’re in.

STILL FIGHTING:

#4 Georgia (11-1) – The Bulldogs started the season ranked #3 and even bounced Clemson for #2 until a midseason loss to LSU sent them down to #8. Georgia worked their way back up to #5, though, and following Michigan’s loss, it’s only natural they slide up into the vacant spot. With the exception of the LSU game, Georgia has won every game by at least 14 points this season, and their best wins have come against Florida and Kentucky. Those teams might be good, but they’re nothing compared to Georgia’s next matchup, Alabama.

Can Georgia beat the Crimson Tide? Yes. They nearly did in last year’s National Championship Game, where they led most of the way. However, it’s still a monumental task, and one they’ll need to accomplish to make the playoff (unless total chaos ensues). If Georgia can take down Alabama, they will have more than earned their spot.

#5 Oklahoma (11-1) – With just one week left in the season, should Georgia fall, it’s easy to say that Oklahoma gets the spot with a win against Texas. Unfortunately, it’s not quite that simple, as margins are very slim between the Sooners and the Ohio State Buckeyes, who jump all the way up to #6. Entering the week, Oklahoma gets the slight advantage for their prior ranking (#6 vs. Ohio State’s #10), and because their loss (48-45 to Texas) is much better than Ohio State’s showing in a 49-20 collapse at Purdue.

Both of these teams have played their fair share of close games, but Oklahoma’s consistency on offense (45+ points in each of their past seven games) gives me more confidence in them as well. Oklahoma does have a great opportunity in that they can get revenge on the only team to beat them. Texas is also a more difficult opponent than Northwestern, so if the Sooners can capture the Big 12, I think it’d be very hard for Ohio State to leapfrog them in the rankings, assuming Oklahoma does stay ahead of the Buckeyes this week.

#6 Ohio State (11-1) – The Buckeyes are no strangers to this position, on the outside looking in come Championship Week. Back in 2014, the inaugural season for the playoff, Ohio State entered this week at #5 and in need of a big performance if they wanted a chance at the top four. They responded in a huge way, trouncing Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten Championship Game, allowing them to move past TCU and into the playoff field. Ohio State would go on to win the first College Football Playoff. In order to have a chance at another title, they’ll need a similar performance against Northwestern should Oklahoma beat Texas – one that says “leaving me out would be a mistake.” We’ll see what the Buckeyes are made of.

#7 UCF (11-0) – Oh UCF, how I love you so. The Knights have won 24 straight games and are just a couple of victories away from back-to-back undefeated seasons. Unsurprisingly, fans are pretty divided on UCF. One camp says “look, there are four undefeated teams. What are we even debating?” Another says “they haven’t played anybody, who cares?” Like almost all arguments between extremes, the truth is somewhere in between.

UCF hasn’t played anything near a power conference schedule, or Notre Dame’s schedule, although they did look great against a very good Cincinnati team when College GameDay came to town. UCF probably isn’t one of the best four teams in the country, but they deserve an expanded, eight-team playoff that gives them a chance. But hey – if Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State all lose, and UCF takes care of Memphis, why not?

In that scenario, it probably comes down to two-loss Georgia vs. UCF, and I think UCF stands a good chance here. The only main detractor is that UCF did lose their star quarterback, McKenzie Milton, to a terrible knee injury last week against USF, which might eliminate them in the committee’s eyes. However, if they keep winning and everyone else does fall, then UCF will have a strong argument. And regardless of how this season finishes for UCF, what they’ve done this season (with a new coach as well) has been amazing, and I hope Milton can have a full recovery and lead the team next season.

CHAOS SCENARIO:

But what if Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and UCF all lose? First off, I like the way you think. CHAOS! SHEER IMPROBABILITY! UTTER MADNESS! Sadly, I think you’ll be disappointed. First off, here’s the rest of my top 10, a.k.a. the teams that will try to slide back into the playoff picture should everyone above them fall.

#8 Michigan (10-2)

#9 Texas (9-3)

#10 Washington (9-3) (Yes, this is the same Top 10 as the AP Poll. I think they got it right this week.)

And now, to unveil the fourth team in the playoff in the chaos scenario: Drumroll, please! … Georgia!

That’s right, Georgia stays at #4. At some point, the gap becomes too large for someone to pass up Georgia, and I think that’s here.

(Note: if Georgia loses by like 50, maybe that changes things, considering they’d just have to play Alabama again, but let’s assume a somewhat reasonable game. Otherwise, then we start talking about Texas win margins vs. Oklahoma, Ohio State loss margins, etc. and we just take things to a ridiculous extreme).

First off, despite being highest ranked among the next three teams, Michigan doesn’t make it in any scenario, because they don’t have a chance to improve their resume. Four teams aren’t going to fall behind Michigan because Michigan didn’t play, and Texas would still pass Michigan with a win (which would have to occur) anyways.

So now it becomes about an 11-2 Georgia team that falls to Alabama vs. a 10-3 Texas or Washington that wins the Big 12/Pac-12 Championship. In both cases, Georgia has one fewer loss, and based off quality wins, I think we can eliminate Washington right away. So we’re left with an 11-2 Georgia vs. a 10-3 Texas who will have beaten Oklahoma twice. This could be close and margins of loss/victory could play a factor, but I think the Playoff Committee has already revealed who they would choose in this situation based off last week’s rankings.

Last week, all three polls (Playoff/AP/Coaches) had Georgia at #5. Both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll had Texas at #11. The playoff rankings had the Longhorns at #14. Clearly, the committee does not love Texas this season, likely in part to bad losses to Maryland and Oklahoma State. This has been a great year for Texas, but they might not even be in the committee’s top 10 this week, and if that’s the case, forget about passing Georgia.

UPDATE: Texas remains at #14. They’re done.

So there you have it. Four teams fighting for one spot. Georgia could seal the deal by beating Alabama, or we could see some shakeup during Championship Week. I, for one, would bet on the latter. We’ll find out soon enough.