*Data from games played through Mar. 3. Teams in each conference are ranked by their Confidence Index rating, a 0-10 scale of a team’s likelihood of making the tournament. A 10 represents a lock, while a 5 is a team right on the bubble and a 0 is, well, better off next year.
Welcome to Championship Week! It’s one week until Selection Sunday, and with the regular season having come to a close, only the conference tournaments remain for bubble teams to add the finishing touches to their tournament resumes. Officially, only 32 teams will have guaranteed spots in the Big Dance as conference tournament champions (with Murray State of the Ohio Valley become the first to earn their bid on Saturday), but quite a few more have already done enough to lock up an at-large bid.
Removing the 21 one-bid conferences leaves 47 spots left in the tournament. Since the last Bubble Breakdown on Feb. 24, an additional 12 teams have earned locks, for a total of 35. That leaves 20 teams battling for the final 12 spots in the field. But it’s not just each other they have to look out for…
THE BID THIEVES! For the unfamiliar, a bid thief is a team not in tournament consideration from a multi-bid league that wins the conference tournament, therefore stealing a tournament birth. For example, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are the only two potential tournament teams from the WCC. If BYU were to win the conference tournament, they’d take a spot away from the bubble, leaving only 11 spots for the 20 bubble teams.
Now that we’ve reached the conference tournaments, I’ll be detailing what each bubble team needs to do to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament field.
American – Goodbye, Temple. You had a good run, but the loss to UConn was the last straw. The Owls can only make the field as a bid thief. Otherwise, the American is pretty cut and dry.
Cincinnati: 26-4 (15-2) RPI: 9 SOS: 67 KenPom: 4 Confidence Index: 10
Wichita State: 24-5 (14-3) RPI: 10 SOS: 42 KenPom: 17 Confidence Index: 10
Houston: 23-6 (13-4) RPI: 19 SOS: 88 KenPom: 19 Confidence Index: 10 – The Cougars needed to lose their final three plus their opening game in the American tournament. Instead, Houston has won the first two of those games. Get your dancing shoes ready.
Atlantic 10 – In one of the shocks of the season, Rhode Island fell at home to St. Joe’s by 30, and lost at Davidson to finish the conference schedule. Despite dropping three of five, the Rams have nothing to worry about. Neither should St. Bonaventure, but it’s not a lock yet.
Rhode Island: 23-6 (15-3) RPI: 15 SOS: 59 KenPom: 47 Confidence Index: 10
St. Bonaventure: 24-6 (14-4) RPI: 22 SOS: 89 KenPom: 63 Confidence Index: 9 – St. Bonaventure has done just about everything in their power to make the tournament, winning 12 straight heading into the A-10 tournament. Now with a resume closely resembling that of Rhode Island, the Bonnies are probably good, although a win or two in the conference tournament would only make them more comfortable.
ACC – Three more teams (Miami/Florida State/Virginia Tech) have locked up their bids, for a total of seven. NC State, Louisville, and Syracuse are all dangling around the bubble while Notre Dame needs a huge ACC tournament performance. At least Bonzie’s back.
Virginia: 28-2 (17-1) RPI: 1 SOS: 15 KenPom: 1 Confidence Index: 10
Duke: 25-6 (13-5) RPI: 4 SOS: 14 KenPom: 3 Confidence Index: 10
North Carolina: 22-9 (11-7) RPI: 6 SOS: 1 KenPom: 7 Confidence Index: 10
Clemson: 22-8 (11-7) RPI: 12 SOS: 16 KenPom: 18 Confidence Index: 10
Miami: 22-8 (11-7) RPI: 25 SOS: 46 KenPom: 36 Confidence Index: 10 – Miami is peaking at the right time, winners of four straight including a buzzer-beater at North Carolina.
Florida State: 20-10 (9-9) RPI: 44 SOS: 70 KenPom: 35 Confidence Index: 10 – Florida State only needed one more win for lock status, and they did it Saturday against Boston College. The Seminoles are probably looking at around a 9 seed.
Virginia Tech: 21-10 (10-8) RPI: 51 SOS: 68 KenPom: 31 Confidence Index: 10 – The Hokies hit 10 ACC wins with a victory over Duke to seal their second-straight NCAA bid.
NC State: 21-10 (11-7) RPI: 55 SOS: 63 KenPom: 41 Confidence Index: 8 – Following a disaster at Georgia Tech, the Wolfpack beat Louisville to put some distance between themselves and the bubble. They get the winner of Boston College-Georgia Tech in the ACC tournament, where one win should be enough.
Louisville: 19-12 (9-9) RPI: 47 SOS: 22 KenPom: 34 Confidence Index: 4 – The Cardinals have been lacking in quality wins all season, and somehow managed to surrender a four-point lead with nine-tenths of a second remaining to #1 Virginia, losing in regulation to a buzzer-beater three. After dropping to NC State, Louisville gets Florida State in the ACC tournament, a game they’ll likely need to win. If they can pull that off, a rematch with Virginia awaits. Unless they take down the Cavaliers, Louisville will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Syracuse: 19-12 (8-10) RPI: 42 SOS: 13 KenPom: 51 Confidence Index: 4 – Forever the bubble team, Syracuse couldn’t go quietly after falling to Boston College. Instead, they defending home court against Clemson to move back to the bubble. Unfortunately, as the #11 seed, they’ll get #6 North Carolina in the second round, assuming they first beat Wake Forest. Again, it’s tough to imagine a situation where the Orange feel safe outside of winning the ACC’s auto-bid, but beating the Tar Heels would be huge.
Notre Dame: 17-13 (8-10) RPI: 66 SOS: 40 KenPom: 28 Confidence Index: 1 – Ignore the inflated KenPom rating – this is a team on fumes. Bonzie Colson is back, but after the Irish failed to knock off Virginia, they’ll need three wins (Pitt/Virginia Tech/Duke) to reach the ACC tournament semifinals and become a true bubble team.
Big 12 – TCU and Oklahoma join Kansas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia, and – wait…what’s this – Oklahoma State is back on the spectrum? You bet they are. The Big 12 is now nine strong in the tourney hunt.
Kansas: 24-7 (13-5) RPI: 5 SOS: 2 KenPom: 12 Confidence Index: 10
Texas Tech: 23-8 (11-7) RPI: 21 SOS: 48 KenPom: 10 Confidence Index: 10
West Virginia: 22-9 (11-7) RPI: 31 SOS: 47 KenPom: 14 Confidence Index: 10
TCU: 21-10 (9-9) RPI: 20 SOS: 7 KenPom: 22 Confidence Index: 10 – It was mainly precautionary that the Horned Frogs hadn’t already locked up their spot. Let’s make it official.
Oklahoma: 18-12 (8-10) RPI: 36 SOS: 23 KenPom: 42 Confidence Index: 10 – Due to tiebreakers, Oklahoma gets the 9-seed in the Big 12 conference tournament, but make no mistake – Trae Young and Co. did what they needed to do, winning two of their final three, and will be dancing.
Kansas State: 21-10 (10-8) RPI: 62 SOS: 77 KenPom: 43 Confidence Index: 8 – Kansas State took care of business in the nation’s most competitive conference, winning 10 Big 12 games. Normally, that’d be enough for a lock, but nonconference scheduling means they aren’t quite out of the water yet. A win against TCU in the Big 12 tournament would help, but even with a loss, the Wildcats stand a good chance on Selection Sunday.
Texas: 18-13 (8-10) RPI: 50 SOS: 17 KenPom: 40 Confidence Index: 7 – A clutch overtime win against West Virginia without Mo Bamba saved Texas’ season and puts them in good shape heading into the Big 12 tournament. As long as Texas beats cellar-dweller Iowa State, they should be fine. But in the Big 12, no win is certain.
Baylor: 17-13 (8-10) RPI: 59 SOS: 18 KenPom: 33 Confidence Index: 3.5 – Baylor fell to Kansas State Saturday in a game which put the winner in a good place and the loser right on the bubble. The Bears get West Virginia in the Big 12 tourney, which will be a tough game. Should Baylor lose, it’ll be tough to see them making the field.
Oklahoma State: 18-13 (8-10) RPI: 87 SOS: 55 KenPom: 57 Confidence Index: 2 – It’s amazing what beating Kansas can do for your resume. In the Cowboys’ case, it puts them back on the map. For a chance at an at-large bid, they’ll need to first take down Oklahoma before winning a second-straight against the Jayhawks.
Big East – In all likelihood, the Big East will get two #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament in Villanova and Xavier. For a while, six teams from the Big East has seemed likely, but Butler has struggled while Marquette is hungry to join in.
Villanova: 27-4 (14-4) RPI: 2 SOS: 12 KenPom: 2 Confidence Index: 10
Xavier: 27-4 (15-3) RPI: 3 SOS: 8 KenPom: 15 Confidence Index: 10
Seton Hall: 21-10 (10-8) RPI: 26 SOS: 20 KenPom: 29 Confidence Index: 10 – After a four-game skid, the Pirates won four of their final five games to solidify their spot in the field.
Creighton: 20-10 (10-8) RPI: 34 SOS: 45 KenPom: 27 Confidence Index: 10 – The Bluejays made up for a tight loss to Xavier earlier in conference play by taking down Villanova in overtime on Feb. 24., locking up a bid in the process.
Butler: 19-12 (9-9) RPI: 45 SOS: 26 KenPom: 24 Confidence Index: 7 – And all of a sudden, after dropping five of their final seven, what once seemed like a sure thing is no longer. Butler plays Seton Hall to open the Big East tourney, a team that swept them this season. Should Butler fall to the Pirates a third time, the Bulldogs will be a tough call on Selection Sunday.
Providence: 19-12 (10-8) RPI: 43 SOS: 24 KenPom: 71 Confidence Index: 7 – By beating Georgetown and St. John’s down the stretch, the Friars avoided picking up another bad loss. A win over Creighton would seal the deal, but losing isn’t the end of the world either.
Marquette: 18-12 (9-9) RPI: 57 SOS: 25 KenPom: 49 Confidence Index: 3 – Sweeps of Seton Hall and Creighton are holding Marquette’s bid together. Somehow, Marquette won five of their final seven, with the two losses coming against St. John’s and DePaul, the bottom two teams in the league. They’ll need to beat DePaul to set up a huge matchup with Villanova in the Big East tournament. Depending on other results, they might stand a chance if they lose a close one, but winning is far more preferable.
Big Ten – Nebraska and Penn State might still be in the next four out area, but since they’ve both been eliminated from the Big Ten tournament, they’ll have to settle for the NIT. The Big Ten is done, with four teams in the top five seed lines or so.
Michigan State: 29-4 (16-2) RPI: 14 SOS: 82 KenPom: 6 Confidence Index: 10
Purdue: 28-5 (15-3) RPI: 8 SOS: 51 KenPom: 5 Confidence Index: 10
Michigan: 26-7 (13-5) RPI: 16 SOS: 66 KenPom: 9 Confidence Index: 10
Ohio State: 24-8 (15-3) RPI: 23 SOS: 36 KenPom: 16 Confidence Index: 10
Conference USA – We officially say goodbye to Western Kentucky after losses to Middle Tennessee and UAB. Speaking of the Blue Raiders…
Middle Tennessee: 23-6 (16-2) RPI: 27 SOS: 81 KenPom: 44 Confidence Index: 4 – …they lost their regular-season finale to Marshall. Not good. I still have them in the field, but another loss would not look good (and it’d better be to Western Kentucky if anybody).
Mountain West – Nothing to add here. Nevada’s a solid ~6 seed.
Nevada: 26-6 (15-3) RPI: 13 SOS: 64 KenPom: 20 Confidence Index: 10
Pac-12 – For a major conference to only have one lock at this point is amazing. Yet, that’s exactly where we are. A few of these teams are on the right side of the bubble, but it’ll be an interesting week for sure. Unfortunately, it’s too late for Stanford to join the party.
Arizona: 24-7 (14-4) RPI: 18 SOS: 53 KenPom: 26 Confidence Index: 10
USC: 21-10 (12-6) RPI: 35 SOS: 44 KenPom: 46 Confidence Index: 8 – Despite losing their last game to UCLA, the Trojans are the Pac-12’s #2 seed and are probably safe, although a win over Washington/Oregon State would get the job done. Solid comeback from a shaky start to the year.
Arizona State: 20-10 (8-10) RPI: 30 SOS: 51 KenPom: 38 Confidence Index: 7 – Once #3 in the nation, Arizona State is only the #9 seed in the Pac-12 tournament. A win over Colorado would probably be enough (and set up a matchup with Arizona), but a loss could bring up a remarkable bubble conversation considering where things once were.
UCLA: 20-10 (11-7) RPI: 38 SOS: 56 KenPom: 50 Confidence Index: 5.5 – True bubble team here. I believe they’re barely in the field at the moment as the last team in, but anything could happen over the next week. As the #4, UCLA gets either #5 Stanford or #12 California. Cal would provide an easy win before a likely semifinal against Arizona, but would just a victory over Cal be enough? Regardless, Stanford is more likely and provides a bigger win opportunity.
Utah: 19-10 (11-7) RPI: 48 SOS: 61 KenPom: 61 Confidence Index: 3.5 – The Utes are firmly in the mix but still have work to do. They’ll play either Oregon or Washington State first, and then likely USC in the semifinals. A trip to the finals would probably be enough for a bid. One win is mandatory to have a shot.
Washington: 20-11 (10-8) RPI: 63 SOS: 50 KenPom: 97 Confidence Index: 2 – Luckily for Washington, they have wins over Kansas and Arizona. Still, I think it’ll take a run to the Pac-12 championship game for the Huskies to sniff the tournament. Barring upset, that would require knocking off USC, which they already have for their other Q1 win of the season.
SEC – The SEC picture has finally cleared up. Texas A&M, Florida, Arkansas, and Missouri all took care of business, at the expense of Alabama, who lost to all but Missouri down the stretch. LSU and Georgia are gone, with Mississippi State realistically done as well, with but a sliver of hope remaining. Bama is the only tough one here.
Auburn: 25-6 (13-5) RPI: 7 SOS: 38 KenPom: 11 Confidence Index: 10
Tennessee: 23-7 (13-5) RPI: 11 SOS: 21 KenPom: 13 Confidence Index: 10
Kentucky: 21-10 (10-8) RPI: 17 SOS: 4 KenPom: 23 Confidence Index: 10
Texas A&M: 20-11 (9-9) RPI: 24 SOS: 5 KenPom: 32 Confidence Index: 10 – The Aggies finished their regular season of swings on a positive note, taking down their last three. One of the most unpredictable teams in Division I, the Aggies could make a Final Four or be steamrolled in the first round.
Florida: 20-11 (11-7) RPI: 39 SOS: 28 KenPom: 21 Confidence Index: 10 – Florida had an equally impressive (if not more impressive) final stretch, including wins over Auburn and Kentucky. Extremely similar to the Aggies, the Gators have the experience to make a deep run and repeat last year’s Elite Eight appearance.
Arkansas: 21-10 (10-8) RPI: 30 SOS: 35 KenPom: 37 Confidence Index: 10 – Arkansas won six of their last eight, also including a win over Auburn. An 8/9 matchup is all but guaranteed.
Missouri: 19-11 (10-8) RPI: 33 SOS: 31 KenPom: 39 Confidence Index: 10 – Rumors are Michael Porter Jr. will play for the first time since the season-opener in the SEC tournament. Luckily, there won’t be any pressure following a resilient Missouri season.
Alabama: 17-14 (8-10) RPI: 60 SOS: 6 KenPom: 53 Confidence Index: 4 – This is not how Avery Johnson’s team was supposed to finish the season. Five straight losses (albeit all to NCAA tournament teams) has the Crimson Tide on the bubble at best, and probably in the First Four Out. They get a rematch of their last game against Texas A&M in the SEC tournament. It’s a must-win. Their prize for winning? Auburn. Regardless, if Alabama doesn’t win the SEC tourney, they’ll need to become the first 15-loss at-large bid in tournament history. If there was any year for it, it’d be this one, but is Alabama the team?
Mississippi State: 20-10 (9-9) RPI: 69 SOS: 94 KenPom: 62 Confidence Index: 1 – Time to throw a Hail Mary. Let’s say Mississippi State beats LSU, Tennessee, and Florida before falling in the SEC title game. Would it be enough? My instincts say yes, but it’d be far from certain. Good luck.
West Coast – So far, so good in getting a Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s grudge match – both teams are safely through to the WCC semis.
Gonzaga: 28-4 (17-1) RPI: 29 SOS: 133 KenPom: 8 Confidence Index: 10
Saint Mary’s: 28-4 (16-2) RPI: 37 SOS: 182 KenPom: 25 Confidence Index: 10
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