Bracketology 3/11/19

Data uses games played through Mar. 10

Welcome to Championship Week! Four teams have already punched their bids to the NCAA Tournament, and by Sunday evening, another 28 will be stress-free for the selection show, which thankfully will be returning to its usual format.

If a few weeks ago it seems as though things were relatively stable despite the overall weak bubble, now things are getting really interesting (and difficult). Margins are ultra-thin as teams like Ohio State, St. John’s, Texas, Florida, and Alabama are seemingly trying to play themselves out of the field (Alabama succeeded in this update), while Creighton and Indiana have returned from the dead to put themselves on the cusp of the field.

As if life wasn’t tough enough on the bubble, the bid thieves are coming to take away the precious few remaining spots. Murray State, who defeated Belmont in the OVC Championship, may have been the first, as Belmont stands a decent chance at an at-large bid, and are currently my first team out of the field.

For me, everyone from NC State at #40 overall to Clemson at #48 is incredibly vulnerable. Depending on what the committee chooses to prioritize, any of these teams could be out of the field even now, which means that once again, the conference tournaments will be crucial.

A few bracket notes: we’re done with projected auto-bids. Teams who have automatically qualified are now bold and gold. When one of the projected auto-bids from a one-bid league loses, the highest remaining seed in their conference tournament takes the spot.

The plan is to release brackets this week on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday morning, and Sunday afternoon, just before the Selection Show. Stay tuned, and follow the Top Level Sports Twitter for more frequent updates.

Next update: Wed, 3/13

For additional data and previous brackets.