6 Bubble Teams That NEED Wins This Week

Absurd as it may seem, we are only a week and a half away from Selection Sunday, and the unveiling of this year’s 68-team March Madness field. Being that we are so close to judgment day, the title of this article might be somewhat misleading. In reality, every team on the bubble desperately needs to finish on a positive note to boost their tournament chances and leave a good impression in the eyes of the committee.

There are some teams, though, whose games seem to mean just a little bit more, with their final regular season matchups coming as opportunities to pick up signature wins that could make or break their tourney hopes. Let’s take a look at those schools facing big tests over the next few days.

Temple: 21-8 (11-5 American) Current Projection (per my latest bracketology): First Team Out
Perhaps no team is more squarely on the bubble than Temple, who at this stage feels like a total 50/50 for making the field of 68. The Owls’ biggest detractor is their 1-6 record in Quadrant 1 games. That win – coming against Houston – is a big one, but compared to other teams, Temple still needs something more. The Owls need to avoid disaster in a trap game on Thursday at UConn before heading back to Philly on Saturday to host newly-ranked UCF. Currently red-hot and #29 in the NET, UCF presents a huge challenge, but at home, it’s an ideal opportunity to pick up a second Q1 win.

However, if they fall, it will likely take a run to the American Conference championship game (which will include a win over Houston or Cincinnati) for Temple to crack into the field.

Florida: 17-12 (9-7 SEC) Current Projection: 11-Seed
Things were looking great for the Gators after a five-game win streak put them in a comfortable position with three conference games remaining. Then, Mike White’s team lost at home to Georgia, which is just about the worst thing you can do. Now, Florida finishes things off against LSU and Kentucky. Florida has already beaten LSU and will now get the Tigers at home, but the fact of the matter is that these are two of the top 10-ish teams in the country, and if Florida goes 0-for, they’ll enter the SEC tourney at just 17-14. One win here and they’ll have nothing to worry about. Otherwise, it’ll be time to worry.

Georgetown: 18-11 (8-8 Big East) Current Projection: Next, Next Four Out
There’s something like 8-10 teams between Georgetown and the field at this stage, which makes the Hoyas something of a tournament hail mary. However, they’re a little better in the loss column than some other bubble teams, which means that when others inevitably lose, if Georgetown can pick up another quality win or two before this is all said and done, they’ll have a fighting chance. For proof, look no further than Utah State, a former bubble team that is now considered to be close to a lock after beating Nevada.

Patrick Ewing and Co. close with two road games against DePaul and Marquette. They really can’t afford to drop either. Should the Hoyas go 2-0, including what would be a huge victory against the Golden Eagles, they will have forced themselves into serious contention.

Texas: 16-14 (8-9 Big 12) Current Projection: 11-Seed and TCU: 18-12 (6-11 Big 12) Current Projection: 12-Seed (Last Four In)
The two Big 12 bubble teams play each other in their final conference game, with the Longhorns hosting the Horned Frogs on Saturday. By advanced metrics alone, Texas should be in the 8-seed range, but due to their overall record, things are far more complicated. No team has ever gotten an at-large berth with more than 15 losses, so a win here is necessary to avoid entering uncharted waters.

As for TCU, the Horned Frogs have dropped six of seven, including to both conference bottom-dwellers, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The selection committee doesn’t factor in conference record, but people would riot if a team that finished 6-12 in conference play got in. Either way, the loser of this game will be in serious trouble.

Seton Hall: 16-12 (7-9 Big East) Current Projection: 12-Seed (Last Team In)
Another victim of the Big East cannibalizing itself, Seton Hall looked strong just a couple weeks ago before dropping three straight and falling to the last team in the field. Their bubble situation couldn’t be any more simple. The Pirates close at home against the top two teams in the league, Marquette and Villanova. They need to win one. Otherwise, I predict the NIT in their future.