5 Bubble Teams We’ll Learn A Lot About This Week

As we venture deeper into conference play, teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble will have fewer and fewer opportunities to pick up quality wins, making every one of those games that much more important. Here are five teams in particular that could really boost their case with a strong week.

Arizona State: 16-7 (7-4 Pac-12) NET: 72 SOS: 69
Bubble: 12-Seed (Last 4 In)
The Sun Devils rocketed back into the field after handing Washington their first loss in Pac-12 play on Saturday, just two days after suffering their worst defeat of the season at home to Washington State. Arizona State has easily the best chance Pac-12 team not named Washington of making the NCAA Tournament, but they face two important road games against middle-tier opponents in Colorado and Utah this week. A pair of wins would really build momentum and leave the Sun Devils in great shape, but this team has proven they can win or lose to just about anybody.

Lipscomb: 18-4 (11-0 Atlantic Sun) NET: 30 SOS: 204
Bubble: 11-Seed
Lipscomb has been absolutely rolling through the A-Sun, and with a pair of Quadrant-1 victories and a #30 NET ranking, the Bison actually stand a decent chance at an at-large bid if things go awry in their conference tournament. Right now, I see them as relatively safe, but all it takes is one or two bad losses to kill a team from a poor conference. Tonight, Lipscomb gets their last chance at a quality win at home against Liberty (18-5, 10-1). With a victory, they can seize total control of the conference, while a loss really applies pressure for Lipscomb to run the table.

Additionally, this is Liberty’s (NET: 61) last stand. Without any real quality wins, the Flames are hanging on by a thread, but if they could pick up a Q1 win here and win out, with this year’s bubble, who knows?

Minnesota: 16-8 (6-7 Big Ten) NET: 58 SOS: 62
Bubble: 11-Seed
Put through the ringer with their last three games against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State, Minnesota will have a major opportunity to bounce back from three straight losses against the Big Ten’s other two bubble teams. Nebraska (12-11, 3-9) and Indiana (13-11, 4-9) are both on near-comically large losing streaks, but are still in the mix given on account of their quality wins. Both schools actually rank above Minnesota in the NET and most advanced metrics. However, if Richard Pitino’s team can win both games, they will solidify themselves as the Big Ten’s eighth-best team, and be safely in the field assuming they don’t crumble down the stretch.

NC State: 17-7 (5-6 ACC) NET: 37 SOS: 262
Bubble: 10-Seed
Things might look decent now for NC State, but they have a crucial next two contests at home against Syracuse tonight, and at Duke on Saturday. Should they lose to both of these superior opponents, the Wolfpack will fall to just 5-8 in the ACC while carrying the burden of a non-conference strength of schedule ranked 352nd of 353 in the nation. NC State only really needs one of these games to stay afloat, but they could fall into the danger zone very quickly.

UNC Greensboro: 20-3 (10-1 Southern) NET: 46 SOS: 190
Bubble: 10th Team Out (#78 Overall)
This year, the Southern Conference has been very underrated. With Wofford (projected 9-seed), UNCG, Furman, and East Tennessee State, the league might have four of the top 68 teams in the country if you exclude auto-bids. With how tight the bubble is and how many teams on it have quite frankly awful records, the Spartans are much closer to the field than their current standing suggests. UNCG went 2-1 in their first round-robin against the league’s big four, falling only to Wofford. Over the next two weeks, they’ll play all three teams again, include at Furman and Wofford on Thursday and Saturday, which both present Q1 win opportunities. If they can manage to go 2-0, the Spartans will likely be in the field this time next week. Two wins out of the three big games and no additional losses will keep them in the mix and make UNCG one of the most interesting bubble teams come Championship Week.

Personally, I’m hoping they run the table and that Furman wins the conference tournament. THREE BID SO-CON! I mean, it’s possible.