The Top Level Sports Bracket Challenge saw 24 entries this year, and now that we’re down to the Elite Eight, just 10 brackets still have the possibility of coming out on top. With seven games left to be played in March Madness, there are 128 possible combinations of results. I’ve run the numbers, and here are the people still vying for the title, along with how many paths to victory they hold. Half scenarios represent ties.
As you can see, there is no clear favorite, as John “The Original Giant Gator” Didyk only wins in roughly 22% of scenarios despite leading the field in points right now and still being eligible to win should six different teams win the tournament. The two exceptions are Kentucky and Oregon, which are covered by Pop and “My Dazzling Bracket”, respectively. Keep in mind that these scenarios are by no means equally likely. FiveThirtyEight gives Gonzaga (27%) and Kansas (26%) the greatest odds at cutting down the nets, while Oregon and Xavier are given just a 3% chance.
While 10 people are still eligible for the win, expect that number to be roughly halved today, as Gonzaga takes on Xavier and Kansas matches up with Oregon to earn the first two spots in the Final Four. Only Didyk and Pop have nothing to worry about today, while everyone else needs at least one and in some cases two teams to win to keep their hopes alive.
I’ll give an update before tomorrow’s games, and by that point, the 128 possible scenarios will be reduced to 32. For now, however, here’s every permutation of how things could go down.